Thursday 4 September 2008

You don't recognise the prophet in your own home!

I found the above saying to be very true this week. For 6 weeks I have been accurately predicting the Friday night evictee on the Big Brother show. I have been happily making cash week in, week out as the results have rolled my way.

Now, I am personally against gambling, so how I have managed to reconcile this with myself? Easily - I have been gambling; I have been using science.

When Gallop and Mori run a poll they ask 1000 random people their opinion. The results from these 1000 people can be reliably extrapolated to gauge the views of the nation. The same process can be applied to Big Brother. At http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/index.php a poll has been running from week to week with 5000+ votes taking place. How can it go wrong? Two weeks ago the poll showed that Lisa was favoured to go when she was up for eviction against Sarah. This went against the odds on offer at the bookies where Sarah was round 4/6 and Lisa odds against at 6/4.

This scenario has been repeated week after week. This brings me to this week's finale. Mikey is favourite on Betfair at around Even money, and has had over £100,000 placed on him to win. However, our system suggests otherwise:


Rachel 31.9%
Sara 27.9%
Rex 18.5%
Michael 12.0%
Darnell9.8%

Total votes: 5507 votes

According to this poll (OF OVER 5000 VOTES!) Michael is actually 4th favourite - behind even the odorous Rex.

This system has not been wrong yet - get your money on Rachel AND Sarah to hedge your bets. Rachel is currently available at 3/1 and Sarah at 8/1. Pile in.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Ross,

Good article....

This just proves my point exactly with Winners of Wealth!

Well done! I hope you had a right few quid on Rachel at 3/1.

Regards,
Greg Mckenzie
www.winnersofwealth.com

Anonymous said...

Thanks Greg. Cleared a grand.